Pakistan’s Strategic Shift from South Asia to the Middle East: Security, Diplomacy, and the Kashmir Question

Abstract

Pakistan’s South Asian identity and the Kashmir dispute has always been the pivot of its diplomacy, security and foreign policy. The recent developments, such as Islamabad's role in the mediation of the United States-Israel-Iran war, and signing of a defense pact with Saudi Arabia, however, demonstrate a deliberate shift towards the Middle East. This paper analyzes Pakistan's transforming geopolitical identity, diplomacy, security and foreign policy from South Asia and Kashmir to the Middle East, and its advantages and disadvantages. The study is based on the theories of realism, regionalism, and middle power diplomacy, and fits the strategic shift of Pakistan in the broader context of regional identity formation. This repositioning has helped Pakistan secure significant inflow of remittances and oil from the Gulf countries, alleviated security concerns on its South Western border with Iran and elevated its status as a power broker in the Muslim World. However, the strategic shift can have the potential to further marginalize the Kashmir position by abandoning its traditional South Asian identity, and mainly Kashmir-centric advocacy. Gulf partnerships might render economic, security and symbolic support and solidarity; however, it is doubtful that they will lend any substantial material assistance to Pakistan for its Kashmir position, as India-Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries economic integration has been ever growing. The paper concludes that Pakistan's Middle East tilt may accrue Pakistan diplomatic, economic and security advantages, but with trade-offs for the traditional South Asian identity and Kashmir-pivotal foreign and security policy objectives. Suggestions have been made on how to combine Middle Eastern engagements with a continued South Asian integration.