Quantifying Drought Severity and Socio-Economic Exposure: An Integrated Risk Assessment Approach for Pakistan

Abstract

Drought is one of the most long-lasting and multifactorial climate-related disasters that have a severe impact on the water security, agricultural performance, and socio-economic sustainability in the developing world. In Pakistan, climate variability has escalated drought cases in the country, thereby increasing vulnerabilities in arid and semi-arid areas. The proposed study will measure the severity of drought and determine the socio-economic exposure by applying a risk assessment framework. Drought patterns are examined with the use of hydro-climatic indicators, specifically, the Standardized Precipitation Index, on multiple time scales in order to capture variability in intensity and duration. The key indicators that are used in gauging socio-economic exposure are population density, poverty levels, agricultural dependency, and water resource accessibility.  It follows a risk-based approach, whereby the drought risk is theorized as the interplay between the hazard, exposure and vulnerability. Spatial analysis is used to determine drought hotspots and areas with an increased socio-economic sensitivity. The results indicate that there is a strong spatial inhomogeneity in the severity and exposure of drought, with the southern and western areas having a higher level of risk because of compounded hydro-climatic stresses and socio-economic vulnerability. The research addresses the gap between the hydrological evaluation and the social vulnerability analysis to provide a data-based background in the drought risk governance. The findings are critical in the policy formulation by policymakers to develop specific interventions, improve climate resilience, and support sustainable water resource management in Pakistan.