Analyzing the Impact of Fertilizer Crises on Wheat Production: A Case Study from South Punjab

Abstract

Replenishment and management of the food demand are the basic needs of the time to cope with the increasing demand for food due to the consistent rise in population. Wheat production in Pakistan showed much-fluctuated patterns from the time of wheat security to its server deficiency. Fertilizer is a basic need and an important input that results in high the cost of wheat production and also the farmers are facing many challenges regarding fertilizer prices in Pakistan. This study investigates the impact of the recent fertilizer crises on wheat production in South Punjab, Pakistan heavily reliant on agriculture. Fertilizer shortages and price volatility, exacerbated by global supply chain disruptions and domestic policy inconsistencies, have posed significant challenges for wheat farmers. Using a mixed-methods approach, including surveys, interviews, and primary data analysis, this research assesses changes in input usage, yield variations, and farmer coping mechanisms during the crisis period (2021–2024). A total of 105 respondents were selected and a multiple linear regression model was used to analyze the factor affecting fertilizer crisis of wheat. Overall significance of model was determined by F-test. The value of R2 is 51.3 percent which indicates that 51 percent of variations are explained by the model. It is suggested that there is a need for timely availability of farm inputs including credit to farmers, subsidy on fertilizer, direct asses to market, application of high yield wheat varieties, and contact of Agri. extension department will be small farmers.